EclectEcon

I tend to think that markets are efficient or pretty darned close to being efficient. But I'm not sure about this one:
Sunday night, the oddsmakers set the spread for the Superbowl at NE -14 or -14.5. On Tuesday the spread was down to NE -12, and some students were telling me that someone had seen Tom Brady (or a lookalike) in a cast.
From the way the NYG played and the way NE played, and from the way the NYG played against NE at the end of the season, I can easily imagine that the spread will be bid down to NE -7 or so within the next week.

If you agree, then plunk down a bunch on NE -12 now and then hedge that bet by plunking an equal amount on NYG -7 when that spread becomes available. It doesn't matter who you think will win, if you make both bets you will lose the commissions (transactions costs) on the bets if the outcome is outside those two spreads. But if it's between the spreads, you get to clean up, collecting on both bets.

But that strategy should be followed only if you agree with my prediction that the spread will drop.

And if you do this, please remember me kindly, no matter how it turns out.